- Posted September 1, 2013 by
Syria “War we should not get Involved in”
Syria is geographically located bordering Israel, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq and Lebanon. Most countries in the list are in deep political turmoil for decades. There had been two major wars against Israel in the past century and the tensions are at all time high. Problems in Syria like other political problems in the world are old and do not look like would come to an end any time soon. Merely by changing a regime certainly the issues will not be settled.
Chemical warfare is not alien to the region or to Assad family. The present president Bashar Al Assad is the son of the late President Hafez Al Assad who ruled Syria with an iron fist. When insurgents took to the streets in the Syrian city of Hama in 1982, Hafez Al Assad’s government unleashed a ferocious attack that has been called the “Hama massacre,” destroying much of the city and slaughtering tens of thousands of citizens and it was reported that the military used chemical weapons. Author Robin Wright in his famous book “Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East” named Hafez Al Assad’s repression of the Hama uprising “the single deadliest act by any Arab government against its own people in the modern Middle East.” Bashar Al Assad knows the drill. How exactly his father and the gang did it then and he will not be hesitant to repeat the same. So he has done and will do in the future. As all Technical Analysts say, “History repeats itself.”
The Hama uprising originated some time in 1976 by Sunni Muslims. Like in Egypt “The Muslim Brotherhood” initiated the process with a view to overturn the rule of Syrian Baath Party which is dominated by minority Alawites, which Assad family belongs. This is the real problem in Syria. “Muslim Brotherhood” of Syria is a Sunni Muslim organization who believes that Islam cannot be separated from politics and the rule of the country. They are more conservative and are considered as heretics while Baath Party believes in Nationalism and Secularism. Alawites are a sect of Shia Islam and approximately are 12% of the Syrian population. But the minority Christians and Druze too support Baath party who definitely would not like a Sunni Muslim rule in Syria.
The conditions become complicated more when you look at the neighbors of Syria. In Lebanon the government has no strong military. Hisbullah, a Shia Muslim organization with a strong military wing which is branded as an Irani backed group of terrorists has equal powers as the Lebanese Army and are supporting Bashar Al Assad due to religious sectarian connection. Iran openly supports Assad administration due to Iran’s Shia majority population. While Hisbullah is a Shia Muslim organization Al-Qaida is a Sunni Muslim Terror group who are no strangers to Americans. The Muslim brotherhood in Syria is Sunni and has attracted Al-Qaida fighters who had been in action in neighboring Iraq. Al-Qaida has their own agenda. After losing Afghanistan they are shopping around for an Islamic state to establish their Headquarters. They were looking at Egypt for the same purpose prior to the military takeover of power from Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. The present head of Al-Qaida, Ayman al-Zawahiri is Egyptian and the moment the military took over the power from Muslim Brotherhood government they arrested Ayman al-Zawahiri’s brother in this connection.
Israel is the common enemy of all in the region and close ally of the west specially of United Sates. Syria shares one border with Israel and already Israel has shown aggression against Syria by bombing a Syrian weapon factory near its border. As you now understand this is a very complicated issue. If USA supports the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria they may be arming Al-Qaida indirectly. In Lebanon already sectarian violence has started causing many lives. If Israel joins in it would look as a fight between Jewish and Muslim. At a time like this why would President Obama wants to engage in limited surgical attack.
When powerful countries have economic problems they go to war. Budget and Debt ceiling, increasing unemployment, IRS, Phone tapings and the whole spectrum of issues can be pushed to a side if we are at war at this moment. Obama administration can use this as an excuse and divert public attention. By firing a few missiles a regime of the nature of Assad cannot be discouraged. This is an anti sectarian war; A complicated one which many countries involve. The failure of our foreign policy in the Middle East has made us look small and powerless. If United States want to get involved we need to go in to a full scale war or we have to use diplomacy to settle the problem. Western countries believe that Damascus has the world's largest remaining stockpile of undeclared chemical weapons - including mustard gas and the deadly VX nerve agent - which Assad maintains as a counterbalance to Israel's undeclared nuclear arsenal.
The Syrian army is trained to use poison gas and, according to US and Israeli intelligence, can deploy it on long-range missiles. "If those reports are correct it would really take a lot of resources and efforts to destroy, to eliminate, those stocks."