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    Posted March 28, 2014 by
    k3vsDad
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    ACA Signup Goal - Hit or Miss?

     

    In  a press conference from Italy on Thursday, President Barack Obama noted  that 6 million people had signed up through the HealthCare.gov market  place exchange and the state exchanges to be in compliance with the  Affordable Care Act. That supposedly hit the revised target of needed  enrollees to make the law work.

    But do the figures add up to sustainability for the ACA?

    The  original goal announced by Health and Human Services was the need for 7  million to enroll in health insurance. That number downgraded,  following the botched rollout of the website, to 6 million.

    Back  in January we were informed by the Administration that of those who had  signed up for coverage 20% had not paid the first month premium. That  meant a hefty number of signups did not count.

    We  were also told that around 50% of signups had led to being transferred  to Medicaid rather than private health insurance policies.

    We  have also been told only about 20% of those enrolling are in the 27 to  30-year-old demographic of healthy young people needed to offset the  cost of insurance to cover the sick and older policy holders. Remember  those 18 to 26 can stay on their parents insurance.

    So what does all this mean?

    If we extrapolate the numbers:

    6 million enrolled - 50% moved to Medicaid = 3 million actual health insurance signups.

    Now  let's take away that 20% who didn't pay the premium which is another  600,000. That leaves us with only 2,400,000 people enrolled in private  healthcare insurance policies through the exchanges.

    This is a far cry from the necessary enrollment number needed for viability of 6 million, revised down from 7 million.

    If only 20% of that number is healthy young people that means the brunt of cost is resting on 480,000 young people.

    No wonder insurance companies are crying, "foul".

    No wonder predictions are that premiums for next year will increase by as much as 300%.

    Now  with the "deadline" extended for those "in line", but not able yet to  complete enrollment, this makes the situation more troublesome and  problematic for determining premiums for 2015.

    This also has many insurance companies reassessing whether to participate in the marketplace next year.

    Is this a Pyrrhic Victory for the President?

    The "magic" number of 6 million was obtained, but does it mean anything?

    Can this initial enrollment period, forgetting the lousy rollout, be considered a success or victory by any standard?

    From the Cornfield, hold on to your hats. The upcoming Mid-Term Elections are going to get bumpy.

    Republicans opting to replace the ACA and come up with an alternative are on the right track.

    Repeal  and starting from scratch is not an option at this point. But any real  change and upgrade of this badly written and more poorly executed law is  going to take time.

    It may even not happen until after the current resident at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue has moved out.

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