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    Posted April 26, 2014 by

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    MH370 search, Phase 2 ?


    I present a modest proposal for a new starting point for searching underwater for MH370 debris.


    Not wishing to be immodest, but I believe the attached annotated images reflect what may be a first -- the very same chunk of debris on two different dates.


    In one of my previous reports, I discussed the 03/31/2014 satellite image which shows what is possibly debris from MH370. Through careful and close analysis of later satellite imagery for the same general area, I have located what I am sure is the same debris again, on or about 04/15 and about 62 miles east of its earlier location.


    Note that the main current flow in the South Indian Ocean is from West to East, with a separate sweeping semi-circular northerly flow in the West Australian (and Leeuwin) current. If debris did not get caught up the West Australian current, then a generally west to east flow is expected this far South. [edited: current name]


    Several news commentators have asserted the debris from the aircraft could have drifted a thousand miles or more if the aircraft crashed into the ocean. I would disagree as there is good evidence for somewhat circular current flow and wind direction patterns in the southern Indian Ocean.


    If these images are in fact of the very same debris about two weeks apart, then we might speculate with some credence that the debris originated about 200 miles west of the March 31 sighting. This estimate is based on a presumed crash date of March 9th, or about 22 days drifting an average 9-10 miles per day. This is, I believe, realistic for partially submerged debris which is not wind-driven because it is probably not very lightweight given its mass. There are rough seas in the satellite imagery for this region, with a lot of cross-current effects created by waves breaking in many directions. Simply put, we do not see long. linear waves that wash up on a beach. On the contrary, the waters appear to often be quite riled up. This can impede forward progress of floating debris, because, there simply is no "forward" direction at the surface much of the time. For these reasons, I believe a west-to-east drift rate of 9-10 miles per day is realistic and credible.


    These debris "objects" are extraordinarily similar in size, shape and 'design'. The 04/15 object is slightly smaller than the 03/31 object, but this probably reflects the pounding it is taking in these rough waters.


    The search for MH370 may now be at, as Churchill said, not at an end, but rather at the "end of the beginning". I present my suggestion to being 200 mile nearly due east of latitude -32.845561 and longitude 94.056637. (I leave it to the mathematicians to determine more precisely where that is.)

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