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    Posted June 3, 2014 by
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    Taliban Prisoner Exchange – A Working Theory of What Happened


    So, none of this makes any sense to us average people. In cases like this one has to put politics aside and look objectively at the evidence. So, what do we know?


    1. We know that the U.S. released 5 top Taliban enemy combatants.


    2. We know that we received a U.S. soldier purportedly held in captivity by the Taliban in return for the release of the Taliban 5.


    3. We know now that the U.S. concluded in 2010 that Bergdahl ‘walked away’ from his post, i.e., deserted his unit. Our administration knew that Bergdahl was a deserter.


    4. We know that the soldier on watch just after his desertion and responsible for the morning headcount reported him missing, provided the world with a complete recount of events on Twitter that was damning to Bergdahl.


    5. We know that Obama has stated that his policy for Afghanistan is withdrawal next year.


    6. We know that Qatar is in the middle of the negotiations, and we also know that the Taliban actually has a consulate office, so to speak, in Qatar.


    Given that none of this makes any sense, it called for some careful thinking to find realistic conclusions.


    If we discount the notion that Obama is a Muslim terrorist sympathizer, and we consider the obvious fact that this is a bad trade, what are we left with?


    We are left with the obvious point that there is more to this deal than meets the eye.


    I postulate that the U.S. has been working with the Taliban to strike a truce. With our intention of withdrawal known, we want to ‘bargain’ for the best possible circumstance and highest probability of stability upon our departure. History has shown that under the flag of withdrawal, the withdrawing force is attacked more aggressively during that time. And we can surmise that upon our withdrawal a power vacuum will exist, whether real or perceived that will encourage conflict between Afghani factions, specifically the Taliban will attack to gain a better footing in the country.


    My theory is this: We have been working on a deal with the Taliban to withdraw peacefully and provide them incentive to ‘keep the peace’. Part of that deal to show good faith was the return of the 5 top Taliban leaders imprisoned at GITMO. But, there would be no way to sell this to the American people. So, the administration asked the Taliban to throw in the deserter so we could sell this as a prisoner exchange.


    Yep, I think that about sums it up. I also think that it’s bad policy to lie to the American people, and it’s bad policy to deal from weakness

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