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    Posted August 17, 2014 by

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    Lessons From The State Of Osun


    Fellow Nigerians, what happened exactly one week ago in the State of Osun was not as simple as it looked. Lest we ta ke some things for granted as we love to do in our country, kindly permit me to do an elaborate post-mortem of that much anticipated gubernatorial election. It is no longer news that the incumbent, Governor Rauf Aregbesola won. I never believed for any second that he was going to be defeated by his main challenger, Iyiola Omisore, for reasons I will explain shortly. The battle for Osun was fought on different fronts and at different levels. There was the personal angle to the war. Who was Aregbesola and who was Omisore? That is usually the first layer of the struggle for supremacy. That aspect is always enhanced by media hype and propaganda. This was palpable in the war of modern day Ekiti-Parapo which was won by Ayo Fayose. Fayose had succeeded in projecting himself as being more popular, streetwise and down-to-earth than the current Governor, Kayode Fayemi. I had warned those who cared to listen to watch how the Governor had failed to challenge Fayose’s popularity contest. That, for me, was a fatal mistake. Human beings tend to follow what Francis Bacon called Idols of the Market Place. The second mistake from Ekiti was simple and straight-forward. Theoretically, political parties would always attempt to rig elections in Nigeria because of the psychological fixation that the other party will rig. It then becomes the contest of the bigger-rigger. But a party can’t successfully rig where it is not overwhelmingly popular. This happened in 1983 when the NPN successfully took over power in Oyo State and sacked the supposedly popular government of the Cicero of Esa-Oke, Bola Ige, but could not get away with Akin Omoboriowo’s electoral victory over Adekunle Ajasin. This is an eloquent example of how elections are rigged and sustained through subtle connivance of unwary electorates. Omololu Olunloyo, an Ibadan man and Mathematical icon, had succeeded in projecting himself as matching Bola Ige intellect for intellect, popularity for popularity, thus erecting the optical illusion that Bola Ige was indeed defeatable. But Omoboriowo did not invest in such monumental hypnotisation and mesmerisation of the people as a prelude towards preparing the people of Ondo State for the forceful takeover that the NPN had envisaged for most of the difficult and unfriendly states needed for the grandiloquent coronation and canonisation of President Shehu Shagari. Fayose had learnt this lesson in grandstanding and was able to reduce Fayemi into a pitiable pulp. Had Fayemi challenged Fayose’s farcical apotheosis, perhaps the results would have been different. But once the hunter transfigured into the hunted, it became obvious that Fayose was going to win fairly or crookedly because a fait accompli had been adequately prepared for the outcome of the election to be believable. If you doubt my theory, please, crosscheck the areas that returned incredible voter turnout and stupendous voting in the Osun election. They were mainly from Ife Local Governments. PDP would have loved to replicate and return such humongous votes all over the State but couldn’t because they had foolishly lost most of their warlords and protectors like Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Isiaka Adeleke. Fayemi did not have such formidable supporters in Ekiti. This Ekiti scenario was cleverly avoided and nipped in the bud by Aregbesola’s strategists. They refused to be cowed or intimidated by the blistering PDP machinery and militarisation or, more appropriately, blitzkrieg. Those claiming that

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