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    Posted June 26, 2015 by
    mariosef
    Location
    Dubai, United Arab Emirates

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    Greece's "Enders Game"

     
    By: Dr. Marios Panagiotis Efthymiopoulos
    Assistant Professor of International Security and Strategy
    American University in the Emirates

    CEO of Strategy International Think Tank, Greece
    Email: marios.panagiotis@aue.ae
    or marios.efthymiopoulos@strategyinternational.org

    PM Alexis Tsipras of Greece has called on referendum for July 5th 2015. It follows the deadlock of the Eurogroup discussions on the Greek bail-out negotiations.

    A referendum that seeks out a solution to the “Game” deadlock between Eurogroup member states, representatives and Greek PM.

    We have to acknowledge that history is surely been written. This is both a personal call but also a historical moment in which Greece can solely come out stronger, as long as people provide a credible support to the PM or lead him to an extensive period of social unrest while he goes in early elections.

    Greece is by now at the center global point. The last referendum call was in 1974 for Greece.

    This is by now a development for the democratic status of both Greece and Europe. For both now and the future.
    In the short-term immediate reaction is quite clear. People are now rushing in the ATMs. To make sure that accurate assets are there. Presumably by tomorrow morning people will also rush to the Supermarkets for the short-term reactions. This comes as a well understood situation cause national Greek Channels project a form of panic.

    In the short-term Greece will ask from Mario Draghi to support ECB bank support towards national banks by the time of the referendum. All leaders are now well informed about the situation.

    History is being written… or being re-written…? George Papandreou was getting ready by 2012, to lead Greece to a referendum. Yet either the question or the levels of preparedness of the Greek public was not ready to such a question.

    Few months ago, government members were asked on Greek TV, about the quality of referendums from other countries, conducting at everytime they wished, in which moments, every-time that there was an issue deadlock the government would go to a referendum.

    They implied that this is about democratic participation of the people. This was direct participation to democracy. Is then Greece able and ready for direct democracy and paritication in an European Environment?

    It was therefore only normal for Tsipras to go to a referendum.

    Continuing the deadlock policy, he follows the steps which were tried to be taken by the earlier in 2012 former PM George Papandreou. Yet PM Tsipras holds more assets and by now more experience and let us nof forget opposite pchsycology more public support.

    It has been noticed that Tsipras would both easily participate with any Eurogroup negotiations by the time he was elected and as easily he would surprise them by reactions of political value, considering minimal options.

    This is a game of opposite pshychology. It is also pure game of strategy and security. That has mostly to do with security related affairs in a second base, namely of economic security, which has also further extensions beyond economic stability to political and social instabilities.

    Greece has assured, a back-up from either sole countries like Russia or Chica which could buy debt or support further actions of immediate support. Greece has also assured to make Europe that Europe needs to either further integrate or disintegrate.

    Europe should become aware that no matter the outcome it should now meet new and global realities of market competition.

    Greece is not a country with limited options for its future. Yet, the very essence of actual sustainable growth and development does not exist in the corporatist, competitive world. Either for the constitution and the laws of the state that are not supportive for new or more action for support of capital and its development, or people’s actual and everyday understanding on the actual reality of the situation, or business owners which are limited solely to the Greek borders.

    Those that compete in a global market have already been associated with majorly associated situations which make them feel more secure but not certain for the future.

    Greece in a status of several options to follow in the short term.

    Per the referendum: Seen as a true option of democracy questions current institutional credibility of the EU based on the economic solidarity.

    The question therefore will be (which is very important to stress our attention to):

    Should we support the government and its works?

    Should we stay in the Eurozone under circumstances, which we negotiate, yet we are not certain?

    Therefore are current institutions, credible to support Greece’s further integration and credibility?

    Or otherwise, we look at global options and regional options and opportunities?

    In the long-term, options are now quite clear:

    Option 1: One country may eventually buy the debt of Greece. There is a historical aspect that reflects global states with a global view… seen in early 21st century, which reallocates geopolitical and strategic balances.

    Option 2: A possible negative vote against the EU, may request Greece out of Eurozone. Limited immediate action will be taken against Greece to its European borders concerning the Schengen agreement. This will lead to urgent support which will come forth by globalist countries or supportive element countries such as Russia and will take them inside the BRICS and newly established development bank in China, making Greece the first country to clearly allocate its geopolitical framework towards more globalized but not necessarily correct options.

    Option 3: Following a negative outcome on Eurogroup and Eurozone, people may be lead toward civil unrest, with unforeseen but short-lived cases

    Option 4: Following the support to call for more action against the Eurozone, Eurogroup will provide limited credit use from Greece. They will reshuffle everything by September and renegotiate under new terms. However, the domino effect will render Europe leaders less credible than they currently are.

    Option 5: Europe wins support. PM Tsipras goes on a new and temporary government until the moment of elections which will not come until the negotiating decisions made by the interim Government put in place to lead Greece to signing the end of negotiations, which will surely change, quietly coming back to earlier and even more so more swift requests for Change.

    Immediate payments will continue. Europe will ask for more integrations and swift processes.

    These are truth full and honest strategic challenges. PM Tsipras is writing history. Greece may eventually win this as a true European country with much anticipated and understood direct representation and democracy, which will either or lead Europe to structural, legal and political changes.

    It will have grave reactions in the global framework to the European constructive ideas and the balance of power in the regions which Europe borders with and is not trying to get more active and aggressive.

    We should get more and more attentive. This a double roulette game. It is a game but not a theory any more. This is put to the practice.

    This is the reaction of opposite psychology. But also these are his strategic options and realities.

    The ideological strengths but also weaknesses of PM Tsipras as a socialist a former communist, on his way to power, will 1, put him among the great future of leaders and as a pragmatist with nothing to fear. 2: He will create fear and possible great disaster for both him and his people. Prestige, glory, cultural and asset values in the long-future will have to be reexamined and Greece posture will have to be re-established. which will not be easy to contemplate, sustain and lead.
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