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    Posted July 1, 2015 by
    Dubai & Thessaloniki

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    Greece's Tradegy

    By Marios Panagiotis Efthymiopoulos
    Assistant Professor of International Security & Strategy
    American University in the Emirates
    CEO, Strategy International, Think Tank, Greece.

    Email: marios.panagiotis@aue.ae
    Or marios.efthymiopoulos@strategyinternational.org

    In order to explain the complexity of the ongoing Crisis in Greece, one must be aware of multiple social and political variables happening in Greece, which are symmetrical and asymmetrical for Europe and the World.
    A domino effect is in progress in the country, affecting all social and market level structures. It affects citizens, inside Greece but also Greeks residing outside the country.

    Greece has always been and possibly will continue to be, a complex state for ‘outsiders’. Greece holds its own understanding, knowledge and perspectives about its country and the world. That is by now quite clear. It holds state mechanisms, with their own decision-making rules and regulations. Greece and Greeks have their own understanding, of what constitutes Democracy and what means to be European.

    Greeks are proud to be Europeans. Yes it is true. However, they do not accept Europe, when Europe comes with a unbearable cost valued with the social perceptions and status of what constitutes to be Greek much more than the fiscal issues.

    What is to happen:
    No matter what people state or assume the referendum will take place.

    The aim of this current government is quite clear. To return back to the negotiating table under different conditions with a popular support vote. No matter what is said or done, a vote may be the sole element of democratic progress and direct democracy, which we have to give, Tsipras wanted in the first place. Is a referendum good as a general idea? Surely is. But under which conditions?

    A different dimension that is not currently been examined or said is the following: Truly with all these delays in payment dues, through negotiations, prices and taxes in Greece are now sky-rocketing. Tax collection has been delayed for over six months. Only 10 to 15% of people, have paid their dues or instalments. Loans are ill collected. Yet banks seem to have been gaining up until negotiations failed some proportional interests of people. Money was somehow returning back by January 2015. The ‘market pace’ mentioned that investment may come eventually forth.

    5 months onwards, decision of the new by now, Greek government to withdraw from the Eurogroup evidently provides a failure from all sides but ironically, provides an opportunity for all:

    1. Greeks now, make either use of Credit Cards, even with limited options, rendering left over generations without knowledge or ability to use cards, to learn how use credit cards or eventually publish some.

    2. Greece holds an aging population. Usually, theory claims that poor areas have considerably a growth in population, which Greece and Europe needs, remembering the French baby boom in the 1950s.

    3. Greece’s picture vis a vis European and global markets hold now a much more clear picture in relevance to world stock markets. No wonder, the Euro is rising and not falling, at least in the short term.

    4. Greece’s case is yet again an example case. Reasoning why European leaders will certainly, and soon after the crisis, demand for more protection therefore more integration. It has been at least a decade, with which those anticipating more Europe in a federal way, may use this opportunity to strengthen decision making in Brussels provided that European states are now ready to give up even more powers. Eventually a nice and committed to bureaucracy story, will be created and a great European event will lead to further integration.

    5. Greece’s PM Tsipras is a former communist ideologue, which holds a very traditional notion of socialism, seen only in the eyes of traditional allies, although they seem not to reflect socialist actions, but rather globalist movements. That is why no matter the outcome and as long as Tsipras will remain in power, he will turn towards the newly established AIIB, led by Russia. The reason behind is that Russia cannot bear nor wishes to handle solely a Greek-European debt at a time of European change… or end….

    Greeks will vote pro-Europe. Will state that we are all Europeans, however, in the level of an even anticipated result. If pro-Euro, this will eventually conclude to a third MoU. We will be led in a short-term immediate interim government to a new debt-loan. We will have to satisfy current but past needs. Greece will then be more integrated into a new European framework. Only natural why Europe leaders suddenly use sustainable growth policy as an added value proposal as long as Europe is seen as its savior, of course under conditions.

    6. Geopolitical security frameworks are picking up in the meantime. Russia has cut off gas to Ukraine today, while is ‘on fire’ on Greek-Russian Relations, and developing relations and presence in the eastern Med. Even with Israel, while the second may seek allies against terror group ISIS. Greece’s alliance with Egypt, Israel, Cyprus and eventually, other states with the goal to satisfy trade and energy needs, satisfies Russia’s regional needs as well. Renders US questioning the perceptions of states however. In it, they see a trade agreement with Russia much more important than the Middle East as a cause and therefore ask for extra care about the future of Greece.

    The US rendered more power to Middle Eastern lead states, with the grace to lead, ie Yemen or Libyan Crisis and eventually fighting wars, ideological or religious in Central Asia namely against ISIS, while the US satisfies a much needed Euro-Atlantic Agreement on trade liberalizing trade goods and satisfying US needs. Strengthening ties and rendering the US dollar stronger.
    Britain has already anticipated changes and therefore requests upfront renegotiating issues with Europe starting with the migration issue and the Schengen issues, with which even Greece may be liable, now under humanitarian condition, soon to come multiple internal market cases of young people seeking work within the market of Europe, which no need to say is a much closed market economy.

    Eventually Germany will have to take important decisions, as the fiscal status of Europe, renders a moving and truthfully developing economy weak in points while it seeks an international perspective. In other parts of the world, as we know that the moving fiscal sources of production are now shifting.

    Greece is at the forefront of all those regional and global events. It is a global culture and civilization, therefore will eventually affect the world.

    The value question that should have never been asked, is whether Greece belongs to Europe. It does clearly. But Greece is a global heritage country. On this basis Greece, should be led to both the World of the European Culture that Unites people and the importance of the Euro as part of the modern Greek society, which is nevertheless aging and not augmenting.

    Greece has regional issues. And the fear now inside Greece is that Greece may export insecurity of Greeks. with neighboring states. If Greece does not find a solution, people it seems may be lead to more extreme options. Beyond the European perspective and the European opportunities or even global opportunities. It is a valid option, as people are leaning towards a deadlock. And Although we all share these problems inside or out, information coming in, recent experience, has shown that Greeks in several cases have become not only victims of themselves but rather victims of all the ‘bads things of the European economy centered in one place”, one area seen in one flag.

    No wonder, the PM of Italy in his meeting with the German Chancellor correctly mentioned that Europe has also other economic problems not taking Italy away from the subject, namely fearing that a positive attitude for Europe, can as easily turn against Europe,after the referendum
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