MEPC 54TH Capitol Hill Conference Series on U.S. Middle East Policy Briefing:

By, FREDERICK C. BUTLER JR.

Council for the National Interest

In order for the United States to have functional relations in the

Middle East we must transition from “playing to win” to damage control.

You can’t fight a war of beliefs with military effort, but you can

reach a common ground through exercising diplomacy that is non-violent

and mutually beneficial. This summarizes the views of highly regarded

specialist in the Middle East.

On Friday, September 12th, 2008, The Middle East Policy Council hosted

their 54th Conference in the Capitol Hill Series on U.S. Middle East

Policy.

The symposium on the incognizance of U.S. foreign policy was titled: The “Global War on Terror”: What has been learned?

Speakers Dr. Robert Pape (Professor of political science, University of

Chicago), Dr. Marvin Weinbaum (Scholar in residence, Middle East

Institute), Dr. Abdullah Ansary (Senior. fellow, Homeland Security

Policy Institute, George Washington University), Douglas Macgregor,

(Lead partner, Potomac League, LLC) and Moderator Chas. W. Freeman, Jr.

(President, Middle East Policy Council) deliberated on the futility of

aberrant U.S. strategy in the Middle East.

What has been learned is the exercise of non-diplomatic U.S. foreign

policy in the Middle East is the greatest threat to National Security

and U.S. forces abroad.

The United States’ occupation in Middle Eastern Countries like

Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq has been met with violent opposition

often resulting in attacks by suicide bombers.

Increasing the unwanted presence of military forces in the Middle East

could ultimately heighten the risk of attacks on U.S. Middle Eastern

Embassies, military bases, and the domestic United States.

Dr. Robert Pape’s, statistical analysis of the frequency of suicide

bomber attacks to U.S. intrusion of foreign regions suggests that the

attacks are more a result of U.S. military presence than augmented

Islamic extremism.

Pape’s data noted that 95 percent of the suicide terrorist attacks

conducted since 1983 were preformed in clusters, or “campaigns.” The

success of these campaigns has led to an escalating dependence on

suicide attacks as a method to affect a political outcome.

He observed 16 different suicide bomber campaigns from 1983 to 2005,

most of which the aim was a democracy with military occupation in their

nation’s homeland.

Our efforts to spread democracy with diminutive diplomacy and

supplementary military occupation have helped re-sculpt a Middle

Eastern political landscape that inhibits our use of tact in the region.

The failure to include forethought when devising strategy while in

Saudi Arabia and Iraq has helped Iran gain influence in the Middle East

and other European countries.

After 9/11 the United States went after the Taliban and wiped-out the

government in Afghanistan – Iran’s biggest threat to the east. Then the

U.S. turned around and disposed of Saddam Hussein – Iran’s biggest

enemy to the west.

Iran is experiencing rapid nuclear advancement. Russia is currently

constructing a nuclear power plant they sold to Iran in Bushehr. Iran

failed to adhere to protocols of the International Atomic Energy

Agency's Program 93 + 2, which is designed to prevent states from

developing nuclear weapons covertly despite IAEA inspections.

All of these facts combined with the U.S. aiding an installation of

Shia government in Iraq, has made Iran the key player in Middle Eastern

politics.

—Staff member Frederick C. Butler can be contacted at frederick@cnionline.org.!file:///C:/DOCUME~1/ADMI