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    Posted January 24, 2009 by
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    Stimulus thoughts: What you'd fix first

    More from hrtschudi

    Recovery Plan: more of the SAME is not CHANGE

     
    The American Reinvestment and Recovery Plan not only has its priorities upside down but it also lacks vision for our children's future. We have the single biggest opportunity in generations to bring forth fundamental change to advance America's society, and we are about to miss it. Let me get something out of the way right away. I am a great admirer of Obama. However, he has surrounded himself with the same mainstream economic thinkers that have brought us into this economic mess. They may have different names, but they operate with the same erroneous fundamentals. There is no reason why their advice is any better now than it was before the crisis set in. Americans may note that a $1000 "gift" to support the working families is mentioned on the very last page only, but support of the working families is not part of the major goals of the plan. It almost seems as serving to bribe the people to accept the unacceptable: a mediocre plan that will not bring about the CHANGE that Americans are so desperate for. Renewable energy The plan says it itself that it took 30 years to reach the current renewable energy production levels. One should ask whether there might be something wrong with the political pet projects that refused to grow for so long. I am tired of these political approaches that not only lack vision but also bring forth energy that will turn out to be more expensive and less reliable. The bottom line is that this approach will make America LESS competitive. Saving a buck through weatherizing projects or with a "smarter" grid might help a few percentage points. But it won't help the fundamental problem that awaits for massive change. The real question here is how to get rid of the fossil fuel burning addiction and to replace it with a big, bold vision for change. As an example, the technology for a geothermal/hydrogen is largely ready to be deployed and it would trigger a boom throughout almost all industries from transportation to energy production, through heating and cooling. There is only one reason that it does not happen: the infrastructure needs changing at a cost of less than $50 billion. CHANGE IT, for haven sakes. America is desperate for real change. It will create millions of new jobs that are also sustainable. Health care costs Let me not waste your time with the tweaking the same old health system a little here and a little there (check my previous articles). Amercia needs to put forth a vision of "health" and replace the attitude of "care". Every child, every retiree and every veteran should be covered at no charge. No questions asked. It would be easy to envision that health care is free for all under one condition: all self inflicted illnesses are excluded and must be insured separately. Self inflicted would be alcohol, smoking, obesity, drugs, not wearing a seat belt, professional sports, anything that compromises a healthy life, you name it. The cost of this? You've got the answer. We have to ask the fundamental question how we have enabled a society to bring forth 2 million morbid obese people. You know why: because the healthy pays to fix self destructive behaviour. The system is irresponsible and creates sick people instead of providing massive incentives to be healthy. What America needs is a health system that is based on responsibility of every individual, not hundreds of prevention programs that are a waste of taxpayer money. Of course, first and foremost, I am aiming at freeing up the purchasing power of the American people that now is frozen in health insurance payments either through the employers or the workers themselves. Preparing our Children for the 21st century economy Our education system has brought forward an entire generation that does not know the word "performance" until they hit the workforce. And the proposal is to extend said education system further into early childhood? Catch them a little earlier to conform to an entertainment society that has kind of lost its capability of independent thinking? To me it sounds like adding structural weakness on top of structural weakness. America needs the most competitive education system in the world. Instead of providing equal education for all (at the lower level), we might be much better off focussing on equal opportunity to education for all, at any point in life, for any educational institution (that is willing to accept you), at the government's investment, as long as you are in the top 2/3 of the performers, and as long as you pay back your investment into your education back to the government after a grace period (no other questions asked). In order to bring forward the world's most competitive businesses, our society needs the most competitive workforce and needs to envision an "American" approach of competition to education, with access for all and highest quality standards. It's hard to digest but easy to imagine that this would change the name of the game at home, at school, at businesses but also to cost for education, but most certainly in competitiveness. It would provide an unmatched opportunity to advance society as a whole. Infrastructure Alright, I am tired of pot holes in American cities that let me think of third world countries. However, in essence, the plan says "fix, fix, fix the old, tweak it". How about envisioning the replacement of air and rail transportation with something really fast, efficient, competitive, and ground based. I hate flying and wasting my time in airports. Enough said. Supporting working families There is a list circling around called "Economic benefits of various stimulus provisions", made by some desktop mainstream economist from economy.com. For some reason, this thing seems to have turned into the bible of government actions. You should look it up. Every straight thinking American should immediately see that Food Stamps and UI Benefits are much more beneficial than tax cuts. In other words, the more unemployed on UI, the better. Those are the same economists that nod off Obama's recovery plan. They argue that money provided to Americans through a tax cut would end up to be saved instead of spent. Isn't that exactly what would be needed if you're indebted up to your neck? The good news in Obama's plan were the tax cut for working families if only it were not 10 times too small. This is a Global Economic Crisis that is distinctively different from the Great Depression. Too much credit across the board has led to a maxed out society, individuals, businesses and governments. That was not the case in the 1930s. Worldwide derivative risks of $500 trillion did not even exist back then. Today, over a quarter of all credit from about half of all borrowers should not have been given in the first place. Having provided too much credit is the problem. However, the banks having stopped the folly results in a collapse in the purchasing power of the average American household of 27% and in overly leveraged businesses having to shut doors in light of lack of funding. That purchasing power needs to be addressed by the government to bring the economy back on track and to close the gaping holes at financial institutions. All else is prone not only to fail but to put a rocket behind the downturn. In other words, away with payroll taxes and all income taxes for good, in with the consumption based tax (8% state, 12% fed), including services. There is plenty of literature out there on how this would not only affect the purchasing power of the average American family but it would bring forward a change in paradigm: transparency in government taxes, and no need to evade taxes or to go anywhere else for that purpose. America deserves no less than the most competitive and transparent tax system on this planet. Transparency? Wasn't that on Obama's agenda? Changing the way Washington does business I like Obama's approach, if it will succeed. However, it needs much more. What did Obama mean when he called out for Change, and what did we understand? Does he mean kicking some Republican decisions? Does Change mean tweaking a little here and scratching a little there? The politics around the globe are broken, the school systems are embarrassing, the laws are for the haves, the health systems are corrupt, the world's security is one scare, the poor gets poorer, violence is the norm, ethic is absent, the economy turned sour, families are falling apart, veterans and the elderly are on their own, and the list goes on. For all this the educated citizens pay higher taxes than during the times of the Roman Empire in all sorts of hidden and non transparent forms. Our past leaders have promised a cake and have delivered mud over and over again. People starve for change. People listened up on Obama's line "enough is enough". It went right down the spine and through the heart. Unfortunately, it seems that Change is not going to happen unless it is made by the people. "Partisan" politics has prevailed for far too long and is the core reason why things are broken. With all respect to the American Constitution, it has outlived itself and needs a serious revamp. Faith in Washington can be restored by institutionalizing a healthy distrust in them. Governments have enacted antitrust laws for businesses in order to stem monopolies and prize controls that would hurt the consumers. In order to protect the citizens, similar, healthy "distrust" rules are needed in politics such that parties can't grow bigger than maybe 1/5 of the "power" base and they should not be allowed to form alliances or to raise barriers to keep new parties from forming, no matter their views (except for those that call for violence and "extremists" with criminal behaviour). The struggle for majority rule kills all reason. In my article series about an economic stimulus (starting with economic stimulus (1): the disabled consumer at http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-132064) I have outlined a proposal for those interested. As so much time and money has already been lost and unemployment is shooting up unnecessarily, I would propose to start with immediately forfeiting of all personal income taxes through payroll deductions only to win the time necessary to deploy a multi-phase emergency program as outlined in my article series, starting with replacing income tax altogether with sales tax, by aggressively and quickly pushing low interest rates through mortgages and consumer loans, and by providing basic health care at $100 per family per month. That would cost a fraction of the bailouts in motion and would have immediate effects to bring back consumers into the stores. Please comment. I will address questions, if I can. H.R. Tschudi, economist and entrepreneur, Vancouver

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