A friend that knew I jumped out of the market before the big drop asked me today "So, when are you going to go back into the market?" After tooting my horn and bragging about how I saw this mess coming, I thought that was a fair question to ask. What point is it to be 50% right if the market goes back up and you are still sitting out and miss out on all those gains? First you have to recognize the signs of the bottom... http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-225269 Then once you think you are close to that bottom, there are things you can check before moving your money back over. Let's backtrack a bit and get some understanding on my line of thinking first. Some people believe in fate, and others think life has a simple design and life is a system of chance. How we perceive what is thrown at us dicatates our next path. I like both to be honest. It would seem that throughout life, opportunities are thrust at us and what we do with those very opportunities can change our lives dramatically depending on what direction we choose to take. In February of 08 I caught myself reading an article from a man named Jim Rogers. http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/30/news/international/okeefe_rogers.fortune/index.htm?cnn=yes And the man he used to work for George Soros http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE51K0A920090221 Normally I would glance over an article like the Jim Rogers one with boredom, and basically ignore most of it. Many said Jim Rogers was wrong. As chance or fate would have it, I had been investing with E-Trade for a while and had noticed some very odd things going on in the market. As fate or chance would have it, I had just finished reading and article about this man a day or two earlier. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubini Pride and Ego are big things to swallow and many are not capable of swallowing those pills. Many said he was wrong so I tried to find somebody that dealt with human emotion because the market is driven by it and find out what their thoughts were on the matter. Someone like this guy. Almost arrogant and cocky. http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/17/pf/experts_Tetlock.moneymag/index.htm So here I had two viable people saying we were heading for a crash of epic proportions whithin a couple days of each other. Others were saying they were nucking futs and we were not going to crash and we were heading back up. Armed with this information I had, it was time to stop and think about what I was going to do. I knew somehow in my gut that I needed to move my stuff. Several people had that same gut feeling and I think whithin most people, we have the knowledge and capability to make the right choice. Many just choose to NOT act on it. I did. I moved my stuff. Now to get back to when I'll move my stuff back. I'll move my stuff when the people that were right about this mess to begin with, say its time. I'll move my stuff back when I know its time to move it back. I listened to myself when I moved it out, I'll do it when it is time to go the other way. There is NO point listening to bottom pickers or clowns on TV that were 8 months late to the party and selling at 9k on the DOW. No, I want to listen to the people that were saying this mess was coming back in 2007 when we topped out. Those are the people that know. I'm not willing to listen to people that were wrong. Those that were right have my undivided attention. I also know how to spot market signs that I wrote about in my other thread. When these things all come together I'll move back over. Right now I see 5000 on the DOW as a very real possibility. Actually I'd go as far as to say it is very probable. Why won't I trade now?? Right now I must recognise we are in uncharted waters and in new territory. We are in a market that has never been. It is full of theives, liars, and crooks. It is chin full of government intervention. It can swing 100 points so fast that there is not time to react to losses unless you are a level III pro trader. Day trading is a dangerous game. Most are broke after the first year. There are a few that make millions. Most do not and I shy away from it. I don't mind playing with some of the PRO Share ETFS and in this market that is a good way to make money, but it is too volitale for me. I prefer to invest in growth companies that can give 400%+ gains like First Solar (FSLR) or Pot Ash (POT) did. We need industry leaders in a new bull market. There is not a sigle industry leading anythig up out there. All charts are broken and all stocks are down. This is NOT a healthy market. One day the market will move back up. It may be 2010 or even 2011. Until that time I hope the derriavtive market can hang on and the government will stay out of it. Last year when they banned all short selling, they really screwed things up and opened the flood gates for massive selling as people were unable to hedge their bets. Reasons like that is why it is not safe to be in this market. The SEC can come in with a rule change any day and upset all trades you have going for you. Nothing like being caught with your pants down and there is no book or class that can teach you or prepare you for government rule changes. There is no book or class that can prepare you for a CEO that tells you to buy stock at $30.00 on Friday, then inks the papers over the weekend when the markets are closed and sells you down the river for $2.00 a share while he pulls the ripchord on his golden parachute and floats away with millions of dollars while you have lost 98% of everything you had. Right now gun sales are at record levels and people are scared. The trend is down on the dow. Jim Rogers says it will continue down and we are heading for a currency crisis. My gut says things are bad and can and will get worse. George Soros says we are nowhere near a bottom. The current administration wants to punish investors and small business owners. The ^vix is hovering around 50. Timothy Giethner cannot find anybody willing to fill his staff positions. Europe is in worse shape than we are. I'm worried about the yen and Trade. If people cannot get credit then the ships will sit there with all that cargo on the docks. I'd like to see a huge boost in steel production and orders as well as a huge boost in the shipping industry. We need a big capitulation (meanest trick of all) day when the forward looking news is good. The time will come to get back in. If it is this year I'll be surprised.