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    Posted November 25, 2009 by
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    Severe weather

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    Tropical Cyclone Update for the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean


    The Swinden Group is advising on two tropical systems.  Typhoon Nida explodes in intensity over the Western Pacific while Tropical Cyclone Bongani skirts northern Madagascar


    Western Pacific – Typhoon Nida: Located approximately 145 miles southwest of Guam with winds of 145 mph, Nida exploded in intensity over the last 24 hours and is now a Category four storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale and will continue to intensify over the next 24 hours to a category five storm, then after 72 hours a weakening trend.  Fortunately, there are no major landmasses in its way in the near future.  Guam will experience high surf of up to 16 feet. 

    For the long term after 5 days, the computer models are in poor agreement with some having the storm re-curve to the southwestward and some have the storm tracking to the northeast.  In any event, the storm will have lost it punch and should be a much weakened typhoon or tropical storm.

    Indian Ocean – Madagascar – Tropical Cyclone Bongani: Located just to the north of the northern tip of Madagascar with winds of 40 mph, this storm is expected to track past northern Madagascar and transit down the Mozambique Channel.  The main threat from this storm is heavy rains triggering isolated flooding.  However this morning’s satellite image shows a storm with poor structure – so it might not survive the transit.  Once in the channel and over open water, it could re-intensify.  Interests in the region should continue to monitor the storm as it will mostly likely change its forecasted track.


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    Matthew Swinden

    The Swinden Group, LLC

    Phone: 303-406-3622                     

    Web: www.TheSwindenGroup.com

    Email: matt@TheSwidnenGroup.com

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