(Excerpt from the NOAA: Imminent Flood Threat in Midwest, South and East Also at Risk)

Major flooding has begun and is forecast to continue through spring in parts of the Midwest according to NOAA’s National Weather Service. The South and East are also more susceptible to flooding as an El Niño influenced winter left the area soggier than usual.

Overall, more than a third of the contiguous United States has an above average flood risk –– with the highest threat in the Dakotas, Minnesota and Iowa, including along the Red River Valley where crests could approach the record levels set just last year.

Supporting the forecast of imminent Midwest flooding is a snowpack more extensive than in 2009 and containing in excess of 10 inches of liquid water in some locations. Until early March, consistently cold temperatures limited snow melt and runoff. These conditions exist on top of: above normal streamflows; December precipitation that was up to four times above average; and the ground which is frozen to a depth as much as three feet below the surface.

“It’s a terrible case of déjà vu, but this time the flooding will likely be more widespread. As the spring thaw melts the snowpack, saturated and frozen ground in the Midwest will exacerbate the flooding of the flat terrain and feed rising rivers and streams,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “We will continue to refine forecasts to account for additional precipitation and rising temperatures, which affect the rate and severity of flooding.”

This is also national Flood Safety Awareness Week. Floods are the deadliest weather phenomena — claiming an average of 100 lives annually. Many of these deaths occur in automobiles and are preventable. If confronted with a water-covered road on foot or in an automobile, follow National Weather Service advice: Turn Around, Don’t Drown.

“In 2009 $5.6 billion in damages to homes and businesses was caused by flooding according to the National Climate Data Center,” says Matthew Swinden, President of the Swinden Group, which provides Weather Risk and Crisis Management services to corporations and organizations. “That figure does not include lost revenue or other incurred cost to businesses associated to flooding.”

In a related news topic from Minnesota - Gov. Tim Pawlenty has declared a flood emergency in 28 Minnesota counties. The flood emergency stretches from northwest Minnesota into the southern part of the state and over to the Twin Cities. The action includes activating the Guard to help with flood preparations and emergency relief. The main area of concern is the Red River Valley, where sandbagging operations are under way. Waters are also rising all across the state. In the Minnesota River Valley at Montevideo, the spring runoff will be just shy of major flood stage this weekend. In Delano, on the western edge of the metro area, the South Fork of the Crow River is predicted to reach nearly three feet over flood stage by Saturday morning. At that same time, the Mississippi in St. Paul should reach flood stage. Ice jams are a problem all across the state, but so far have not caused major damage.

Numerous Flood Warnings from the Dakotas down through to the Mid-Mississippi Valley have been issued for spring flooding.

“I am afraid that this spring flooding may prove costly for the Midwest,” says Swinden. “We are advising our clients to begin preparing now for the spring flooding and to review their business continuity plans.”

Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service provided by the Swinden Group to corporations and business travelers so that they are prepared for severe weather that may negatively impact business and travel.

The Swinden Group provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide.

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Matthew Swinden

The Swinden Group, LLC

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