Toamasina, Madagascar – Over the last 12 hours, Giovanna has increased in strengthen and size to become a potentially deadly and destructive category four tropical cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Travelers and Expats in the path of this storm need to evacuate the region to northern or southern Madagascar or plan on being self-sufficient for up to a week or two.

At 0300 PM GMT, the center of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna was located about 425 miles east of Antananarivo and about 325 miles east of Toamasina, Madagascar. Giovanna is moving toward the west-southwest at 16 mph. Giovanna is expected to continue tracking to the west-southwest and the center of the storm is expected to make landfall near or just south of Toamasina on the early morning of Tuesday February 14th.

Giovanna has strengthened over the last 12 hours with maximum sustained winds 145 mph with higher gusts. Rina is a dangerous and potentially deadly category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening is forecasted for Giovanna prior to making landfall with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles.

Threats & Damages –

Giovanna has the potential of being the Madagascar’s most destructive and catastrophic cyclone in history. Anticipate widespread coastal flooding, widespread damage to the port of city of Toamasina, widespread inland flooding due to torrential rains, major damage to the infrastructure, and major travel disruptions. It will be weeks before the basics of the infrastructure come back on-line.

For the capital city of Antananarivo, Giovanna could pummel the metro area as a strong category 2 or destructive category 3 storm. Expect major widespread damage.

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