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The Cornfield View: The March 13 GOP Races
On Tuesday, 2 Southern states conduct primaries: Alabama and Mississippi. In addition, the State of Hawaii conducts a binding caucus while the territory of America Samoa also holds a caucus.
Most eyes and news reports have been locked on the 'Bama and Ole Miss' competitions. There have been a number of polls conducted. Both states are expected to be decisive for two of the candidates: former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.
For former Massachusettes Governor Mitt Romney, a place in both races will be enough to gather more delegates to his already much larger than all the other candidates combined delegate count. For Texas Congressman Ron Paul, neither race is figuring much into his plans.
The good news for both Romney and Paul is that both will probably post delegate wins in both Hawaii and American Samoa. Neither Santorum nor Gingrich have paid attention to those two contests.
What's at stake in the 4 races:
Alabama: 50 delegates (3 are uncomitted state elected officials) awarded proportionally unless a candidate gets 50% or more than winner-take-all. 26 are proportioned on the statewide percentage. 21 are based on congressional district winners.
Mississippi: 40 delegates (3 are uncommitted state elected officials) awarded proportionally. 25 delegates are proportioned on a statewide percentage. 12 are based on congressional district winners.
Hawaii: 20 delegates (3 are uncommitted state elected officials) awarded proportionally. 11 are awarded based on the statewide vote. 6 are based on congressional district winners. The Hawaii Caucus is a binding caucus on the delegates.
American Samoa: 9 delegates (3 are uncommited territorial elected officials). The convention may bind the delegates or allow the delegates be uncommitted.
The 2 primaries are expected to be the most entertaining and may even have some nail-biter moments. Gingrich has stated that he must win at least one of the races to remain viable. Santorum is hoping dual wins will knock Gingrich out of the race. Romney will be happy with a strong 2nd showing in both states.
The most receent polls are showing very tight races between Romney, Santorum and Gingrich. Alabama has a slight lead for Gingrich followed by Romney then Santorum, but all within the margin of error.
In Mississippi, Romney is actually out-pacing both Gingrich and Santorum.
So here's how things look From the Cornfield on this sunny Monday in March:
Hawaii:
#1 Romney | #2 Paul | #3 Santorum | #4 Gingrich
American Samoa:
#1 Romney | #2 Paul | #3 Santorum | #4 Gingrich
Alabama:
#1 Gingrich in a squeaker
#2 Romney nipping at Newt's heels
#3 Santorum pushing and gouging to get ahead
#4 Paul
Mississippi:
#1 Romney in an upset
#2 Santorum in a nail-biter
#3 Gingrich
#4 Paul
That's the way it looks as I peer out from the Den across the Cornfield.
From the Cornfield, hopefully the results will come in early in the night and not late into the early morning hours of Wednesday.
- TAGS:
- american_samoa,
- election,
- politics,
- mississippi,
- voting,
- alabama,
- hawaii
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