- Posted May 7, 2012 by
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Election 2012: Your stories
The Cornfield View - The 3-State Primaries
If you didn't realize it, the Republican presidential primary season is not yet over. Presumptive presidential nominee Mitt Romney has not yet reached the magic number of 1,144 delegates. Plus Romney still has competition from Texas Congressman Ron Paul who has been shoring up his delegate count in state after state and taking control of state party committees.
There are 3 states going to the polls tomorrow - The Cornfield's own Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia. Primaries in these states have some notable side races and issues as well.
In Indiana, 6-term incumber Senator Dick Lugar is facing off in the fight of his life with Tea Party favorite State Treasurer Richard Mourdock. The Democrats are like sharks in the water smelling blood if Lugar is knocked out by Mourdock. The Democratic candidtate Congressman Joe Donnelly may have a real chance in changing Congressional chambers in a shoot-out with Mourdock in the fall which could keep Democrats in power in the US Senate. If Lugar prevails, expect him to return to Washington DC.
In North Carolina, Amendment 1 is heating up passions. The Amendment would define marriage as one man and one woman. The Amendment would also bar civil unions, domestic partnerships and other similar descriptions for not only same-gender couples, but heterosexual couples as well. The issue is so hot, former President Bill Clinton has put out an ad in the state asking voters to reject Amendment 1.
In West Virginia, what is most notable is that the state's Democratic Governor and US Senators are not supporting President Barack Obama's bid for re-election and have asked the President to not campaign in the state.
How does all this look from the Cornfield?
One thing I can safely predict - Mitt Romney will sweep all 3 states.
The Lugar-Mourdock fight may come right down to the wire. I see a slight edge to Mourdock, but Lugar's popularity and service is high in the state. But...win, Mourdock - the first and only Tea Party win this election cycle.
That said, I will predict now that Romney will take back Indiana in the fall. Mourdock will lose to Donnelly giving one of the state's Senate seats to Democrats. Also, Democrat John Gregg will best Republican and current Congressman Mike Pence for governor.
As to Amendment 1 in North Carolina, this is a tough call. I think by the narrowest of margins the Amendment will be defeated. North Carolina is still quite conservative, but times are changing and the Amendment goes too far.
From the Cornfield, that's the way the 3-State Primaries look to be shaping up.