- Posted May 22, 2012 by
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Election 2012: Your stories
The Cornfield View: Obama's Protest Vote Problem
There is another interesting dynamic taking place with the primaries in both Arkansas and Kentucky today, but on the Democratic side of the ballot box.
There is a possibility that President Barack Obama may once more be embarassed as he was in the West Viriginia Primary by the protest vote.
In Kentucky, the President is running unopposed. But Kentuckians have the option of voting for "uncommitted". Kentucky Democrats have expressed already they are none too happy with the President's performance.
What if "uncommitted" gets a good percentage of the vote?
Then there is Arkansas.
The President is being opposed by a Tennessee lawyer, John Wolfe. Wolfe recently won 12% of the vote against Obama in the Lousiana Primary. Wolfe is currently only 7 points behind the President in Arkansas' largest congressional district, the 4th.
In 2008, the President, then Senator, lost out to then Senator Hillary Clinton 70% to 27%.
In 2008, presidential candidate Obama lost Arkansas to Arizona Senator John McCain, picking up only 39% of the vote. This was 6 points less than Massachusetts Senator John Kerry received in his presidential bid.
The possibility of a strong protest vote is high.
Coupled with the Oklahoma Primary which had a 18% protest vote for one candidate (more when you figure the other 3 or 4 candidates) and the 12% protest in Louisiana and add the 42% protest vote in West Virginia, it is clear that not all Democrats are falling in line like they did for the 2008 general election.
What will this mean for the President in the fall with his match-up against presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney?
The President may be seeing a real problem developing in unifying the coaltion that he put together in 2008, which could mean a Republican taking of the White House.
From the Cornfield, as the vote totals come in tonight, it will be worth watching to see just how strong the protest vote will be in both Arkansas and Kentucky.