- Posted June 12, 2012 by
This iReport is part of an assignment:
What does it mean to be Greek?
Scenarios for the June 17th elections in Greece
President of Strategy International
Days prior to electoral vote (June 17th 2012) in Greece many cannot predict the outcome and the day after. The stakes are high.
Questions are raised: Remain or wither from the Euro-zone? Will Greece be able to pay back in debt? Will any emerging party possibly rule the country in an positively effective way? Will it be accepted by European and Global leaders? Will Greece re-structure its relations? Will Greece have a credible government to lead the way in a new path of development and not austerity?
This article attempts to provide possible scenarios. They may result from elections.The attempt is to understand possible consequences.
The new elections of June 17 in Greece, follow an earlier election that was held on may 6th 2012. These elections did not manage to create a credible coalition government. It resulted to a second early election. A large gathering of unresolved issues need now to be resolved, immediately after elections Prior to the next Euro-group meeting in the end of June.
These are some of the following scenarios. They are based on onsite testimonies.
Facts: PASOK a ruling party has come third to the last election. People negatively scrutinize PASOK to this day. Yet, under a new leadership primary led by Venizelos (the former minister of finance, a law professor) Pasok is expected to play a pivotal role in a new coalition government led by New Democracy. if not Pasok withdraws. Third election will be decided.
New Democracy (ND):Center right party, a ruling party, is attempting to unite the right wing and center. Under its flag it will attempt to fight austerity through development & EU leader's support.
Siriza, widely known through its leader Alexis Tsipras, a united front of leftist parties has suddenly emerged, as greek take it into offensive against both PASOK and New Democracy parties. Suddenly Syriza has come to be the second party, attempting to the forthcoming elections to become first and establish a government, through coalition of other leftist parties (Democratic Left or Independent Greeks-latest -right one-not sure or clear of position on this case)
1. ND is elected first. Given sole power to create a government. Siriza comes second. Siriza will be 'punctual' in opposition in all austerity measures that shall be decided by ND.
2. ND creates a coalition government with PASOK and maybe a third party.Within a specific timeframe a credible government is formed. It will battle austerity through development. otherwise new elections will occur within six months.
3. Siriza comes first. Through a coalition government of Democratic left takes the lead. European and Global Markets shaken the very first days. Euro, slumps and chaos is created amongst voters inside Greece but also outside. The European Union decides to negotiates otherwise Greece and the Euro-zone is seen on the very edge of their existence. Stability comes back after a month. Siriza remains from three months. Fails to overturn austerity. Elections are claimed soon after September.
4. Siriza wins. Yet overturns its policies. Initiates talks with the EU and negotiates new terms with the IMF. Battles austerity measures through development programs yet fails to sustain internal debt from rising.
5. ND and Pasok in the meantime (in case they lose, Join forces. Pasok is dissolved and created under a new name (that is already been created). Samaras leaves his position as leader of new democracy. New democracy is lead by a new leader. Pasok Withdraws its people from Siriza and New Democracy. Pasok Recovers. Plants a new 'seed of young generation of politicians'. Leads the way against Siriza. ND comes third, suddenly shaken, unless a new generation is appointed.
These are some early scenarios. Greece is to either come stronger or lose a good opportunity to recover. A Third way is therefore requested that does more for the State.