- Posted August 28, 2012 by
FORT LAUDERDALE, Florida
- HOLOCAUST REMEMBRANCE DAY
- THE LAST WITNESS | THE SINKING OF SS STRUMA, BLACK SEA, FEBRUARY 24th, 1942.
- CHINA, In my opinion (My first trip to China)
- "THE GLASS IS FULL": THE ISRAEL-HAMAS SECOND WAR | Operation “Pillar of Defense”
- "THE GLASS IS FULL": THE ISRAEL-HAMAS SECOND WAR [OPERATION "PILLAR OF DEFENSE"]
The Atomic Proliferation Programs, Post Iran Acquisition of a Nuclear Capability
"History is full of avoidable tragedies, of foolish countries that have allowed their enemies to prepare to destroy them". U.S. Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
The Atomic Proliferation Programs, Post Iran Acquisition of a Nuclear Capability. | INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EXPERTS, political think tank analysts, elected politicians, commentators, the new and old media have framed and presented the dangers of Iran’s nuclear program in the wrong perspective. The correct perspective is the danger to the security of the entire world and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). This communication will lay out a scenario that may occur should the theocratic regime of Iran acquire a nuclear weapon.
THE GLOBAL NUCLEAR SNOW-BALL EFFECT*:
1. Should Iran acquire this much desired atomic weapon, Saudi Arabia will follow suit in 2-4 years. Being beyond the US political and military umbrella they will assert a more independent foreign policy (Saudi Arabia has ALREADY APPROVED ITS FIRST ATOMIC POWER PLANT in July 2012).
2. Egypt. The largest Arab nation in the Middle East will follow as well because they would not stand still to this increase in military power by these surrounding nations.
3. If Saudi Arabia and Egypt have atomic programs (nuclear weapons), then the somewhat Islamic government of Turkey will commit its economy to the production of a "Turkish atomic weapon".
4. Greece. Even with all its financial and structural problems, foreign debts and the lowest financial rating possible for a sovereign debt, Greece will find some resources to start an atomic program. Its program will be rooted on consequences of the history of the WWI, territorial wars with Turkey, WWII and the division of Cyprus. It could take as little as 4-8 years for Greece to acquire a functional weapon.
5. Romania. The dominant power in the Balkan area (IMPORTANT TO THE WEST, GERMANY, THE USA AND TO THE EAST...) would not stand still. It would reactivate its already advanced atomic program from the 50’s and 60’s. Romania would finally feel free from the political influence of Turkey (dating back to the XIX century) and from the constant bullying of Russia (whether under the Tsars, communist URSS or from the present Russian Federation, under Putin.
6. Poland. Poland would only be a natural addition to the atomic club. Its geographic position in the northern European corridor between Western Europe and eastern Russia (and its satellites-states) would give Poland a distinct advantage. Poland has been seeking liberty, freedom and independence from foes on its East and on its West sides since the time of Napoleon Bonaparte.
7. Germany. Is now, after a devastating WWII, the true economical, industrial and financial engine of Europe. It is the 4th of 5 of the largest economies on the world, perhaps in less than a year; they would have a very sophisticated functional weapon, one that could be delivered by an advanced submarines, rockets or airplanes.
8. Italy, Spain, Switzerland. These countries have all the assets and knowledge to produce an atomic weapon.
9. Finland + the Baltic countries of Latvia, Estonia y Lithuania. With such a long history of animosity vs. Russia, war and occupation by the former URSS, before and after the WWII, they could follow the same path of total independence, and have weapon within 4-10 years.
10. Following the Chinese aggressive Chinese stand in the Asia, Japan could have its weapon in a matter of months. Both Germany and Japans’ efforts to create an atomic weapon would be for their powerful economies and solid scientific bases, like marketing a new luxury sedan or a new electronic consumer product.
11. South Korea. They have demonstrated that they may have a weapon soon, for self-defense and a reciprocity with poor but strongly and nuclear-armed North Korea. They would soon be followed by Vietnam and a collection of other Asian States.
12. It goes without saying that Taiwan could possibly have a functional weapon in no time. Its advanced industry could produce one in possibly in 1-2 years or less.
13. On the American continent, Canada may feel pressure to have a weapon of its own. Some enemies could show up along the frontiers. Possibly along the southern border (see the 1812-1815 American-British wars) or to the North, where the Arctic pole has so many mineral fields that are being opened.
14. Brazil. As an emerging power, Brazil could have a defensive weapon in its military arsenal in 3-5 years. A peaceful country and with few frontier wars with its neighbors, Brazil, as the largest country and economy on the continent, will want the weapon for prestige alone.
15. Argentina. Argentina would produce one and show its muscles in the process of reclaiming the rich Malvinas Islands.
16. Venezuela and Colombia. These two countries fencing off against each other vis-a-vis the history of Great Colombia and the aspiring Bolivarian dreams would each have the weapon in a matter of 5-10 years. Will not serve them for any practical purpose, but they could have nuclear arsenal. Both countries have local deposits of uranium ore.
17. Peru and Chile. Perhaps these two countries may have a short and long term atomic program respectively, which would produce a weapon in 10-15 years.
These 25 countries listed above are all perfectly capable, some more than others, of having an official atomic program in the near future.
Other countries that may have the capacity to develop nuclear weapons in a 5-10-15 years span, could be with Australia, South Africa, Nigeria, and at the far end of the time line maybe Morocco and Libya,.
In total there is the possibility that some 30-35 countries or more out of a total of 135 registered with UN could have the weapon. Perhaps even Switzerland could develop one just to defend its banking system, luxury watch and knife making industries.
The traditional and non-traditional snow-ball effect would be devastating to MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) system in place between USA and Russia, with UK, France, India & Pakistan, China following suit.
New alliances will remake the political world. There would be divisions into gangland style states each offering an atomic umbrella to others. Havoc and political insecurity will follow.
The danger of a nuclear-armed Iran | THE TERRORIST ATACK ON BURGOS, Bulgaria (A CRIMINAL ACT ON CIVILIAN NON-COMBATANTS), IS A DEADLY REMINDER THAT TERRORIST ARE ACTIVE AND CAN BE FOUND EVERYWHWERE.
Iran has many secret and covert enrichment activities and sites and is constructing ICBM-s and has the ability to absorb crippling economic and political sanctions. It claims that this research is only for the sake of advancing nuclear medical science, with medical isotopes. Is the whole world so naïve?
One point is clear: Iran does not respect international law. Observe how Iran is behaving today without nuclear weapons. Imagine how it will behave tomorrow with a few crude nuclear weapons!
The cost of not stopping Iran today will be dramatically higher tomorrow.
A nuclear-armed Iran could threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz: after the powerful US Navy intervention, the temporary closure at least will create a disturbance and a spike in crude prices. Oil prices would increase to higher levels than they are today. The oil pipeline delivering 6 million barrels a day which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz can do some good. In addition, a massive US naval presence there would render the Straits operational (keeping clear of mines and other obstacles) in a matter of weeks so that the other 10 million barrels a day could be delivered by tankers.
If Iran obtains an atomic weapon it will start a dash to the nuclear arms race beyond the political and economic control of the UN Security Council and the seven nation states that are officially armed with nuclear-weapons, USA, France, UK, Russia, India, Pakistan and China.
In conclusion, Iran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.
After the Burgas (Bulgaria) terrorist attack, perpetrated by Hezbollah-Iran operative (s), in where 5 Israeli tourists died (+ one Bulgarian driver and the terrorist), injuring another 34, the Israeli PM Netanyahu said: "a terrorist state must not have a nuclear weapon".
Is an atomically armed Iran a danger to the peace of entire world? YES!
It is clear that diplomacy, sanctions and international pressure will not work because it never has. Allowing Iran a nuclear weapon is a slippery slope…
We stand threatened with annihilation and a dangerous slip into darkness and electronic control.
By Hedi Enghelberg | email@example.com
FORT LAUDERDALE, AUGUST, 2012
House Foreign Affairs Committee: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Chairman | House Set to Approve Strongest Iran Sanctions Ever; Ros-Lehtinen Urges President to Sign, Fully Enforce Bill. (HR 1905) The bill is designed to implement crippling economic pressure in order to compel Tehran to abandon its illegal nuclear weapons programs, its support for global extremist groups, and other dangerous policies.
"This bipartisan, bicameral Iran sanctions legislation strengthens current U.S. law by leaps and bounds," House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairwoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) said late Monday. "It updates and expands U.S. sanctions, and counters Iran's efforts to evade them. The bill sends a clear message to the Iranian regime that the U.S. is committed, through the use of sanctions, to preventing Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold."
*Effect is defined as something that is produced by an agency or cause; result; consequences; meaning or sense; a state of effective or operative.