- Posted September 12, 2012 by
This iReport is part of an assignment:
Results from recent quake watch.
On 09/06/12 a watch was posted forecasting a worldwide increase in quake activity for the following 5 days.
This forecast was in effect from 9/7/12 until 9/11/12 and called for 30+ M~5+ quakes in various regions along with 2 M~6+ quakes and 1 M~7+ quake.
I have added the actual quake activity during this 5 day period to the forecast map by using black stars for the M~5+ quakes and Red Stars for the M~6+ Quakes.
In the 5 day period of the watch , 25/30 of the M~5+ quakes hit , 2 /2 of the M~6+ quakes hit and 0/1 for the M~7+ quake. A total of 27/33 forcasted quakes hit fairly close to all the forcasted areas for an accuracy rating of 81.8% , similar at least to that of a weather forecaster,
The actual watch posted was as follows:
Due to current and upcoming events the increased probability of activity continues for at least the next 5 days near active faults.
Solar and lunar events combined with magnetic abnormalities may trigger seismic activity nearly anywhere in the world but somewhere along the Pacific Rim will most likely be the targets.
The magnitudes possible for these events may vary. This watch is simply suggesting that an increase in seismic activity is possible anywhere in the world over the next 5 days. Due to recent events the magnitude expected should be between a M~7.3 and M~7.9 although a larger quake is not out of the question. In addition to a M~7+ , there should be two quakes of a M~6+ and over 30+ quakes of a M~5+ over the next 5 days.
The zones in yellow seem to be most active therefore may be subject to the increased activity although any of the highlighted red lines may see this increase.
This is only a watch , the term "Watch" in this case would expect a chance of increased activity, it does not assure that an event or events will occur.
This is not a prediction. A prediction states the time and location of an event , this instead is a forecast. There is resonable evidence that supports precursors and pattern recognition for earthquake forecasts and I have posted a few here on Ireports over the last year or so. Check my other Ireports, my forecasts are at least as reliable as most weather forecasters.
Again, This is not meant to be a prediction but simply a reminder that a little preparation can go a long way. Water, flashlights, canned food, batteries, first aid supplies & a battery powered radio are not hard to come by before a disaster.
The nature of all weather is unpredictable, and the best tip of all is Be Prepared!