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The Cornfield Eye on the Polls - Post-Debate - October 8th
The 1st Presidential Debate is now history. As I stated in my last Eye on the Polls, I was going to wait until after the debate performance had a chance to set in before posting another Eye report. The results are now in.
Most notable of the polls is one conducted by Pew Research which was conducted totally in the days following the debate and released just today. The other polls include some pre-debate and post-debate respondents. Some of the others are daily tracking polls which are always quite fluid.
Presidential National:
Clarus - Obama 46% Romney 47%
Gallup - Obama 50% Romney 45%
Pew - Obama 45% Romney 49%
Politico/GWU - Obama 49% Romney 48%
RAND - Obama 48.93% Romney 45.19%
Rasmussen - Obama 48% Romney 48%
Reuters/Ipsos - Obama 47% Romney 45%
There were 7 polls included in this Eye on the Polls. The Cornfield Aggregate of the Polls produces these results:
Obama 47.7% Romney 46.7%
As can readily be seen, the presidential race is far from over if the national polls are any indication. The bounce definitely goes to Romney post-debate.
Obama Job Approval:
Gallup - Approve 51% Disapprove 44%
Politico/GWU - Approve 50% Disapprove 48%
Rasmussen - Approve 51% Disapprove 49%
Is the Nation on the Right Track or the Wrong Track?:
Politico/GWU - Right Track 39% Wrong Track 54%
The Issues:
Repeal the Affordable Care Act - Agree 54% Against 39% (Rasmussen)
Foreign Policy - Obama 47% Romney 43% (Pew)
Foreign Policy - Obama 50% Romney 44% (Politico/GWU)
Medicare - Obama 46% Romney 43% (Pew)
Medicare - Obama 51% Romney 42% (Politico/GWU)
Strong Leader - Obama 44% Romney 44% (Pew)
Strong Leader - Obama 50% Romney 45% (Politico/GWU)
The Voting Blocs:
Blacks - Obama 92% Romney 3% (Pew)
Blacks - Obama 94% Romney 2% (Politico/GWU)
Hispanics - Obama 60% Romney 38% (Politico/GWU)
Independents - Obama 42% Romney 46% (Pew)
Independents - Obama 35% Romney 51% (Politico/GWU)
Men - Obama 43% Romney 51% (Pew)
Men - Obama 43% Romney 54% (Politico/GWU)
The Middle Class - Obama 56% Romney 40% (Politico/GWU)
The Military - Obama 26% Romney 66% (The Military Times)
Whites - Obama 37% Romney 58% (Pew)
Whites - Obama 41% Romney 56% (Politico/GWU)
Women - Obama 47% Romney 47% (Pew)
Women - Obama 55% Romney 42% (Politico/GWU)
Presidential State-By-State:
Colorado - Obama 45.9% Romney 49.4% (Gravis Marketing)
Colorado - Obama 49% Romney 48% (Rasmussen)
Colorado - Obama 47% Romney 43% (Selzer)
Iowa - Obama 49% Romney 47% (Rasmussen)
Massachusetts - Obama 63% Romney 33% (Western New England College)
Michigan - Obama 49.3% Romney 45.85% (Foster McCollum)
Ohio - Obama 47% Romney 48% (Wenzel Strategies)
Pennsylvania - Obama 47% Romney 45% (Susquehanna)
Virginia - Obama 50% Romney 47% (PPP)
Wisconsin - Obama 49% Romney 47% (PPP)
This Thursday night Vice President Joe Biden faces off against Republican challenger Representative Paul Ryan from Centre College in Danville, Kentucky. As with last week's debate, I will hold off until the weekend to allow any impact from that debate on the presidential standings.
From the Cornfield, that is the latest Cornfield Eye on the Polls.
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