- Posted November 5, 2012 by
This iReport is part of an assignment:
Voter Turnout Will Determine Who Wins, Who Loses
Forget all the polls, the pundits, the chattering heads and party activists. None of those matter. There are no reliable tea leaves to read.
Who wins and who loses will come down to one thing Tuesday - voter turnout.
Pollsters have been talking to people in the battleground states and nationally. The pollsters find a very divided and close electorate. Some polls are indicating likely voters, but of all the people responding to the questioning, no one knows for certain how many will actually get up and vote.
And that's the issue.
Who will vote and who will stay at home no matter how many polls in which they have participated?
Turnout is key. Not just turnout for early voting, but who will make the effort tomorrow to go to the polls and perhaps stand in line for hours to cast their ballot.
We've all seen the scenes from Florida and Ohio were voters have been lined up around the block waiting to vote. Many have waited up to 9 hours to place their vote. Many, such is in Ohio, may be turning out to vote early rather than miss a day of work in what is still a very bleak economy.
Who votes and who doesn't vote may all spin on enthusiasm. If early vote totals being reported so far are any indication, President Barack Obama may be in trouble. Compared to 2008, the percentage gap between Democrats and Republicans is nowhere near as large between the President and his opponent, Mitt Romney, as it was in 2008 against John McCain.
That could spell danger for the President.
If we look at the rallies of both Romney and the President, in these last few weeks of campaigning, the numbers turning out seem to be more for the challenger than the incumbent. We are not getting the packed arenas and the screaming throngs of 2008 coming out in support of the President.
For diehard supporters of the President, they are still "all fired up and ready to go". But for the majority of the electorate there doesn't seem to be the electricity that was so apparent in 2008. This year the election is not on the same level of historical significance as 2008.
The pundits and the prognosticators are already handing the election to the President. But I wonder if all the pronouncements from the talking heads may play against the President?
Will the lessening of enthusiasm turn to lethargy of those who may vote for the President feeling there is no need to stand in line because the election "experts" have already determined the President won?
Looking at the crowds turning out for Romney events and hearing the roar of his supporters versus what is happening at rallies for the President, it is evident to any objective observer that the fervor seems to favor the challenger.
But will that fervor mean voters will turn out for the Republican?
From the Cornfield, I believe anyone thinking either candidate has the election sewn up may wake up to disbelief on Wednesday that their candidate did not win.
Because voter turnout was either not enough or voter turnout was over expectations.