Forget  all the polls, the pundits, the chattering heads and party activists.  None of those matter. There are no reliable tea leaves to read.

Who wins and who loses will come down to one thing Tuesday - voter turnout.

Pollsters  have been talking to people in the battleground states and nationally.  The pollsters find a very divided and close electorate. Some polls are  indicating likely voters, but of all the people responding to the  questioning, no one knows for certain how many will actually get up and  vote.

And that's the issue.

Who will vote and who will stay at home no matter how many polls in which they have participated?

Turnout  is key. Not just turnout for early voting, but who will make the effort  tomorrow to go to the polls and perhaps stand in line for hours to cast  their ballot.

We've  all seen the scenes from Florida and Ohio were voters have been lined  up around the block waiting to vote. Many have waited up to 9 hours to  place their vote. Many, such is in Ohio, may be turning out to vote  early rather than miss a day of work in what is still a very bleak  economy.

Who  votes and who doesn't vote may all spin on enthusiasm. If early vote  totals being reported so far are any indication, President Barack Obama  may be in trouble. Compared to 2008, the percentage gap between  Democrats and Republicans is nowhere near as large between the President  and his opponent, Mitt Romney, as it was in 2008 against John McCain.

That could spell danger for the President.

If  we look at the rallies of both Romney and the President, in these last  few weeks of campaigning, the numbers turning out seem to be more for  the challenger than the incumbent. We are not getting the packed arenas  and the screaming throngs of 2008 coming out in support of the  President.

For  diehard supporters of the President, they are still "all fired up and  ready to go". But for the majority of the electorate there doesn't seem  to be the electricity that was so apparent in 2008. This year the  election is not on the same level of historical significance as 2008.

The  pundits and the prognosticators are already handing the election to the  President. But I wonder if all the pronouncements from the talking  heads may play against the President?

Will  the lessening of enthusiasm turn to lethargy of those who may vote for  the President feeling there is no need to stand in line because the  election "experts" have already determined the President won?

Looking  at the crowds turning out for Romney events and hearing the roar of his  supporters versus what is happening at rallies for the President, it is  evident to any objective observer that the fervor seems to favor the  challenger.

But will that fervor mean voters will turn out for the Republican?

From  the Cornfield, I believe anyone thinking either candidate has the  election sewn up may wake up to disbelief on Wednesday that their  candidate did not win.

Why?

Because voter turnout was either not enough or voter turnout was over expectations.