- Posted January 4, 2013 by
Little Neck, New York
Korean Presidential Election rigging by the program
1. Why Are the Results of the Election Not Trustable?
(1) A Large Gap between the Exit Polls and Actual Vote Count Results
Over the past decade, the exit polls have a reputation for accuracy in projecting election results including the winning margin. In the 2002 presidential election, the exit poll indicated a 1.7 percentage point lead for Roh Moo-hyun and he eventually won by a 2.3 percentage point lead. There was just a 0.6 percentage point difference between the exit poll and the actual results. And in the 2010 Seoul City mayoral election, there was just a 0.4 percentage point difference between the exit poll and the actual result. In 2002, the three major S. Korean TV networks (KBS, MBC, and SBS) took the exit poll “separately” and “independently.” During Lee Myung-bak’s administration (2008~present), most of the South Korean media have diminished to be the government’s handmaidens and this year, strangely enough, KBS, MBC, and SBS decided to conduct the “joint” exit poll, all of a sudden.
In the 2012 presidential election, the joint exit poll showed very low accuracy. The “joint” exit poll by KBS, MBC, and SBS indicated a 1.7 percentage point lead for Park Geun-hye but she eventually won by a 3.6 percentage point lead. A 2.4 percentage point difference between the exit poll and the actual result is huge. On the other hand, in the exit poll by OhMyNews, Moon Jae-in was projected to win the election by a 2.4 percentage point lead, beyond the margin of error. All these exit polls had been taken up until 3:00 pm. When we consider the fact that in South Korea, voters in their 50’s and over who tend to lead toward the conservative party tend to do more early voting than the younger generations who tend to lean toward the democratic party, Moon could have won by a huge margin. And in fact, in the poll by YTN, Moon was projected to win the election by a 3.6 percentage point lead.
More than anything, voter turnouts were soaring throughout the Election Day, almost as high as in the 1997 presidential election in which Kim Daejung, the Democratic nominee, won the election and even higher than in the 2002 presidential election in which Roh Moo-hyun, also the Democratic nominee, won the election.
Around 1:00 pm, Park Geun-hye’s Saenuri Party announced they would file a lawsuit to declare invalid election even if Moon won the election, making a false accusation of unlawful acts. According to some reports made around that time, Park’s camp and Saenuri Party were texting one another, stating the emergency while Moon’s camp, the Democratic Party, and the supporters were in a festive mood. According to the resources for reporters, the joint exit poll taken by KBS, MBC, and SBS up until 3:00 pm indicated a 2.2 percentage point lead for Moon (Moon: 50.8%, Park: 48.6%). And all of other independent exit polls were also known to have projected Moon Jae-in to win the election:
Samsung: Moon (50.8%), Park (48.6%)
Korea Research: Moon (47%), Park (42%)
Reseach View & Stock Firms: Moon (50.4%), Park (48.1%)
Research Plus: Moon (50.4%), Park (48.1%)
KBS (Independent) and the Blue House indicated about a 3 percentage point lead for Moon.
But in less than two hours, at 5:00 pm, KBS, MBC, and SBS unanimously projected Park to win the election (Moon: 48.9%, Park: 50.1%). Unlike past elections, they didn’t even announce and update the hourly exit polls before 5:00 pm. On the other hand, Moon was projected to win by the YTN poll by a 3.6 percentage point lead (Moon: 49.7 ~ 53.5%, Park: 46.1 ~ 49.9%).
And there’s no more exit polls after 5:00 pm and 2,310,660 people voted after 5 pm. Suppose the joint exit poll was accurate, then in order for Moon to win, he should have earned 57.5% of 2,310,660 votes. But not only did he fail to do so but he lost by a bigger margin than projected. Traditionally, college students and blue/white collar workers tend to start voting around 5:00 pm after their work is over. And they tend to lean toward the progressive party. Here’s one out of many examples: In the 2010 Seoul City mayoral election, Oh Se-hoon of the conservative Grand National Party (former Saenuri Party) was leading by 14 percentage point margin in the morning, by 4 percentage point margin at 4:00 pm, and by 0.6 percentage point margin around closing time as more people voted for Han Myung-sook of the Democratic Party after 4:00 pm.
Did Moon fail to earn 57.5% of 2,310,660 votes cast after 5:00 pm because the voters in their 50’s and over chose to turn out after 5:00 pm this time? And reportedly, voters in their 50’s marked 90% turnout and the media is unanimously making a fuss about it every day. Does it mean the conservative fifty something voters chose to turn out altogether after 5:00 pm, only in this election? Then, let's take a look at the following graphs that indicate the accumulated votes counted by hour in this election. (The original graph is provided by SBS).
When the voters in their 50’s and over were rushing to turn out after 5:00 pm, when Park was earning enormously larger number of votes than Moon, how could the graphs make such beautiful, consistently smooth curves, indicating a "consistent" 3.6 percentage point lead for Park? This is a very crucial evidence that the election was rigged. We'll discuss this more in detail in section 2 below.
(2) The 2012 South Korean Presidential Election Marked High Voter Turnout: 75.8%
Past elections have shown that the higher the voter turnout, the more likely the progressive party to win. The media and Saenuri Party are now touting the growth in the 50 and over population. It’s true the 50 and over population has increased 10%. Voters in their 50’s reportedly marked 89.9% turnout but they are a limited range of the voters. Thus, we don’t think it’s plausible they were the main reason of the higher-than-usual voter turnout.
(3) Turnout among Voters in Their 50’s was Abnormally High and Turnout among Voters in Their 40’s was Abnormally Low
Voter turnouts of the 1997, 2002, and 2007 presidential elections show a uniform pattern. When we calculate the voter turnout by age based on this pattern, 82% of voters in their 40’s and 80% of voters in their 50’s must have turned out to vote with 75.8% voter turnout. But in fact, in the 2012 presidential election with 75.8% voter turnout, only 78.7% of voters in their 40’s are known to have voted while a tremendously high number of voters in their 50’s (89.9%) have turned out to vote. Let me put it this way. If 51 year-old voters mark 82% turnout, then voters at a certain age group must mark 98% turnout to make 89.9% average turnout possible. So, 89.9% turnout among voters in their 50’s, do you think it’s really possible?
Especially, while the average turnout gap in past elections between voters in their 40’s and those in their 50’s is 7%, the gap in turnout in the 2012 presidential election is 11.2%. When we consider the high turnout in this election, the gap would be approximately 13%. Please beware that the turnout among voters in their 50’s has nothing to do with the growth in the 50’s population. Yet, the leading conservative news media is trying to relate these two variables to justify the nonsensical election results. But the fact of the matter is, the voter turnout by age is not available at this time and they are telling lies with no tangible real numbers.
(UPDATE) There's been a movement among South Korean voters that the names of the registered voters must be double-checked to see if the turnout among the voters in their 50's was not modified. (Related Link: http://www.seoprise.com/board/view.php?table=seoprise_13&uid=185253)
(4) Moon Jae-in Earned 40% of the Vote Cast in Busan
As Busan is a traditional conservative Saenuri Party voting constituency, Moon’s Democratic camp had hoped to get 35% of the vote at the most.