The world had survived the first Oil Embargo ShockWave. It has survived the second Oil Price ShockWave. Will it be able to absorb the third? I don’t think so. The first ShockWave was unexpected. The second was engineered. And… the third will be well planned, far more precise, smooth and flawless. The economists will never understand the reason for and the nature of the ShockWaves that they have overlooked so far. “The last three global recessions (prior to 2008),” according to Nouriel Roubini in “Scary Oil” posted on EconoMonitor of March 15, 2012, “were each caused by a geopolitical shock in the Middle East that led to a sharp spike in oil prices. The 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and Arab states led to a global stagflation (recession and inflation) in 1974-1975. The Iranian revolution in 1979 led to global stagflation in 1980-1982. And Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in the summer of 1990 led to the global recession of 1990-1991. Even the recent global recession, though triggered by a financial crisis, was exacerbated by spiking oil prices in 2008. With the barrel price reaching $145 in July of that year, oil-importing advanced economies and emerging markets alike faced a recessionary tipping point.”

My question is will the fourth global recession lead to Economic Doomsday? This is a question that needs to be focused by those who are at helm of the affairs in those capitals of the world that matter; those think tanks that are busy in building scenarios and conducting sensitivity analyses; and those scholars and researchers who think that the world needs a global economic direction and a leadership that has the vision and the ability to turn the world’s troubled resource rich regions into conflict free zones of global economic growth and prosperity.

http://zahidhkhalid.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/why-another-oil-shockwave-will-lead-toeconomic-doomsday1.pdf